The time of economic boom is behind us
Gospodarska gibanja 501
The global economy has reached a cyclical peak at the end of 2017, a gradual cooling down of activities in 2018 will continue in 2019. Political exacerbations and trade war have a negative impact on economic activity. The decision-making elites do not understand the more permanent presence of political negativity.
A too high forecast of Slovenian GDP growth of 5.1% in 2018 shows a double misunderstanding by the IMAD: the use of extrapolation instead of the structural model and ignorance of the impact of on exogenous political factor on the economy .Though a few months before the end of the year, their reduced growth to 4.4% this is still too high, as growth is likely to be below 4%, as we predicted last autumn. An unjustified optimism in predictions leaves decision makers at macro and micro level unawaret, though they should prepare antii-cyclic measures to revive meagre growth.
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