Abstract

 

The global economy has reached a cyclical peak at the end of 2017, a gradual cooling down of activities in 2018 will continue in 2019. Political exacerbations and trade war have a negative impact on economic activity. The decision-making elites do not understand the more permanent presence of political negativity.

A too high forecast of Slovenian GDP growth of 5.1% in 2018 shows a double misunderstanding by the IMAD: the use of extrapolation instead of the structural model and ignorance of  the impact  of  on exogenous political factor on the economy .Though a few months before the end of the year, their reduced growth to 4.4%  this is still too high, as growth  is likely to be below 4%, as we predicted last autumn. An unjustified optimism in predictions leaves decision makers at macro and micro level unawaret, though they should prepare antii-cyclic measures to revive meagre growth.