Will they stay or will they leave?
Gospodarska gibanja 487
On June 23, British will decide whether they will stay in or leave EU. This is not surprising as United Kingdom has never been a very devoted member of the community. If UK stays, the EU will become or remain asymmetric federation, if UK leaves, exit will not destroy neither UK nor EU economy. The predictions of economic consequences of Brexit differ and are mainly based on ex- ante beliefs rather than on solid calculations. The exit would bring two years of negotiations on procedures of the exit and many more years of negotiations which would determine future position of UK and relations with the rest of EU. However, assuming reasonable negotiations between the UK and the smaller new EU, one could claim that economic effects will be small. This differs from potential political consequences. If UK stays also other countries could try to get exemptions given to UK, if UK leaves other countries might wish to follow. Indeed, the real problem of EU is not Brexit, the real problems are »unions« such as monetary, fiscal, and banking unions or Schengen which were created without sound economic pillars and which therefore proved to be catastrophic in the times of the crisis. EU therefore appears to be a good association for good times and a bad one for bad times; “less Europe” is for a stable future of the EU better than “more Europe”
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