Economic growth and development in post Yugoslav countries
Gospodarska gibanja 451
At the time of collapse in 1991, former SFR Yugoslavia was among less developed European countries with unsustainable economic and social differences among its federal units. In last twenty years, after proclamation of independence economic and social differences among Post Yugoslav countries increased even further, partly due to different impact of military activities and different degree of approximation to the EU.
Despite the changes in status (independence), economic system (transition to private market economies) and in economic environment (global financial crisis) growth rates in Post Yugoslav countries in last 40 years remain 3.3% on average. This differs from the world, where average yearly GDP growth declined from 3.7% in first twenty years (1971-1990) to 2.6% in next twenty years (1991-2010), with even lower 2.1% average growth within second sub-period during global financial crisis 2005-2010.
Growth of independent Post Yugoslav countries in past 20 years was slightly above world and the EU average, insufficient to significantly narrow their gap to advanced economies. Extrapolation of average 2005-2010 growth would increase GDP of Post Yugoslav countries by one third by 2022. Improvements in utilization of existing factor endowments and creation of new factor endowments could accelerate growth of Post Yugoslav countries by 2022 (by two thirds compared to 2009), but not enough to enable their true real convergence, a precondition for the EU membership.
Keywords: economic development, economic history, growth and fluctuations
JEL: O1, N10, O52
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